In the past, he noted, high and rising consumer sentiment has favored the reelection of incumbents, with troughs in the outlook favoring challengers.This article duplicates the scope of other articles, specifically MSNBC controversies. “Ever since Trump was elected.Republicans have consistently anticipated a robust growth and Democrats have consistently anticipated a recession,” Curtin wrote in a research note early in October. For Reagan and Obama, however, the shifts were statistically insignificant after Trump there was a “dramatic” 74.6 point swing between Democrats and Republicans, according to Michigan survey director Richard Curtin. The Michigan survey itself has on occasion included questions about political party affiliation, notably before and after the elections of Ronald Reagan in 1980, Barack Obama in 2008, and Trump in 2016.Įach time there were changes in economic expectations based on party alignment, with members of the winning party showing more faith in the economy, and members of the losing party reflecting less favorable sentiment. That may be particularly important in the age of Trump, who, according to several separate studies, seems to have changed the game when it comes to partisanship influencing views about the economy. The survey will be ongoing, and Morning Consult analyst John Leer said the questions on political alignment, Trump approval and media diet, were included as part of an effort by economists and analysts to try to better define how opinions are shaped and how they influence behavior. Readers of the New York Times sat in the middle at 107, near those who get their news from Facebook (110) and Twitter (112). Viewers of conservative-leaning Fox News registered 139 for current sentiment about the economy viewers of MSNBC, an outlet often critical of Trump, registered 89. The results, weighted by factors like age, race and sex, to be nationally representative, were similarly skewed based on media consumption. It also includes questions about the respondents’ political leanings, and an initial set of results released Wednesday showed a stark division that may make it hard to interpret how the economy’s performance will play out in 2020 presidential voting.Īmerican voters face the same set of economic facts, from low unemployment to the risks from a trade war, but the survey’s index of overall sentiment - at 108 just above the 100 line that separates positive from negative impressions of the economic outlook - masked the huge divide between those who approve of Trump, whose views measured a far rosier 136, and those who disapprove of the president, with a reading of 88. The online poll, by data firm Morning Consult, asks the same five core questions as the University of Michigan’s well-known consumer sentiment survey, and for nearly two years has been collecting about 210,000 responses a month, compared to 500 or so each month for the Michigan survey. The upcoming campaign may be different, according to results of a new “big data” survey of consumers showing that views about the economy have split along partisan lines, associated with whether an individual approves or disapproves of President Donald Trump, watches Fox News or MSNBC, or identifies as conservative or liberal. FILE PHOTO: A person walks by the Fox News offices after it was announced that news anchor Shepard Smith had quit the network in New York City, U.S.,October 11, 2019.
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